------------ Chapter 15: Games as Systems of Uncertainty -------------- - This is another game design schema - Games express uncertainty on two levels: a) macro-level: overall outcome b) micro-level: specific operations of chance designed within the system ** It is crucial that players do not know exactly how the game will play out. If they do, why play? This is the reason sports are usually aired on TV live.... If there is no macro-level uncertainty, the experience can not provide meaningful play. - Three degrees of uncertainty: a) uncertainty b) risk (Roulette) c) certainty (tic-tac-toe has a certain outcome) - Most games have some combo of uncertainty and risk - Even a FPS such ash Halo or CS has macro-level uncertainty. It is a skill based game, but there are many factors that can change the outcome. - Chess: say you play a friend and you loss 2/3 times. There is still uncertainty that makes the game worth playing. - Feeling of randomness: it is possible to design a "feeling" of randomness even if the game is not actually random: - Ex 1: Chinese checkers: the center of the board appears to change almost randomly when there are 4-6 players. Actually, this is an illusion, it is all determined by decisions.. - Other examples? - Probability in Games serves two roles: 1) introduce randomness and chaos 2) study of the math can reduce wild unknowns to known risk values - Probability of rolling two dice: 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6 2-1 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6 3-1 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6 4-1 4-2 4-3 4-4 4-5 4-6 5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4 5-5 5-6 6-1 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-5 6-6 Prob of getting a: 2 1/36 2.78% (1-1) 3 2/36 5.56% (1-2 and 2-1) 4 3/36 8.33% (1-3 and 3-1 and 2-2) 5 4/36 11.11% (1-4, 4-1, 2-3, 3-2) 6 5/36 13.89% (1-5, 5-1, 2-4, 4-2, 3-3) 7 6/36 16.67% (1-6, 6-1, 2-5, 5-2, 3-4, 4-3) 8 5/36 13.89% (2-6, 6-2, 3-5, 5-3, 4-4) 9 4/36 11.11% (3-6, 6-3, 4-5, 5-4) 10 3/36 8.33% (4-6, 6-4, 5-5) 11 2/36 5.56% (5-6, 6-5) 12 1/36 2.78% (6-6) - Math alone will not lead to meaningful play, the key is understanding how probability relates to player decisions and outcomes. - Consider monopoly: Average roll is 7, there are forty spaces, therefore players will typically round the board and start landing on other peoples property withing 6 or 7 rolls. The probability determines PACING of the game. - You can devise rules relative to the pacing to make it more interesting. Consider chutes&ladders. If there were no chutes/ladders, and you keep rolling to see who hits 100 first, the two are usually close and it is boring. BUT, the chutes/ladders add an element that perturbs the state sufficiently to make it interesting. * As a result, chutes/ladders is sorta fun even though players make no choices! Play Game 1: Thunderstorm: - see rules handout out - play - Analysis: why is this game fun? Answers: See notes-10.b Play Game 2: Pig: - see rules handout out - play - Analysis: why is this game fun? Answers: See notes-10.c Probability Fallacies: - overvaluing the long shot: players have a tendency to take the long shot. - Monte Carlo syndrome: if it was red 8 times in a row, next time it HAS to be black. - overemphasis on good outcomes: given an unlikely negative and an unlikely positive, people tend to emphasize the positive one. - lightning striking twice: people seem to think if something bad and unlikely happened, there is NO way it will happened again. Yet if something unlikely and good happened, it can happen again (like when you win a jackpot in the slot machine....) - luck: people believe in luck! Each of the above has design implications: - if a game allows players a long shot choice and a safe bet, expect players to take the long shot. - overemphasis on good outcomes and lightening striking twice can help players remain optimistic ** It is important to understand not just the probability mechanisms, but also the way player will interpret (or misinterpret) these mechanisms.